Just when the hierarchy in the Group of Six appears to become more clear, several of the best teams lost over the past two weeks.
Over on The Pool Report Substack, I cover the G6 conferences and put together a weekly media top 25 poll. Five of the top 10 teams have lost within the past two weeks.
And James Madison, North Dakota State, Air Force and Western Michigan were defeated this past week. Just five teams in the G6 conferences have one loss, and none are undefeated after JMU fell for the first time this season.
That makes for a fascinating discussion about a G6 team making the College Football Playoff, as one team from those leagues is guaranteed to make it. Here are my top five CFP contenders out of the G6 after Week 8:
1. Boise State
The case for: Boise State is in a tier of its own in my mind.
From a broad overview, the Broncos have everything you could want. They have star power on offense, as running back Dylan Riley leads the FBS with 963 rushing yards. They also have a quarterback in Maddux Madsen who may not put up 400 yards every week but is a stable presence and can manage the run-first offense. And Boise State’s defense has been solid, allowing 16.5 points per game in its last four outings.
What particularly goes Boise State’s way is the strength of its non-conference schedule. The Broncos don’t have a Power Four victory, but they did nearly win at Oregon to start the season, losing 34-27 after leading at halftime. They also beat Memphis and Western Michigan, two strong G6 teams, each by double digits.
And they’ve been pretty dominant in Pac-12 play thus far.
The case against: The Broncos’ pass defense has been vulnerable at different points this season, and they still have to play Texas State next weekend and Oregon State two weeks after that. Both of those teams have dynamic passing games which could prove to be problematic.
Because of the way the rest of the G6 has played, the Broncos wouldn’t be out of CFP contention if they lost another regular season game. But they would no longer be in that tier of their own if they lost.
2. New Mexico
The case for: During the preseason and the first two months of the season, I’ve talked about how New Mexico’s defense was going to be strong enough to put the Lobos in CFP contention. And here we are.
New Mexico is 6-1 overall and 3-0 in the Mountain West standings — the only team undefeated in league play — after beating North Dakota State 21-16 on Saturday night. And the Lobos have been so successful because of their defense.
They have the No. 1 scoring defense in the country at 11.3 points per game allowed, and they’re No. 5 in total defense with 261 yards per contest given up. Their prowess was on full display against NDSU, which was in the CFP discussion until the New Mexico loss. The Bison were limited to 1.9 yards per rush and quarterback Nathan Hayes threw two interceptions, one of which Austin Brawley returned 56 yards for a game-changing touchdown in the fourth quarter.
New Mexico’s lone loss was at Oklahoma, and the Lobos’ defense shined in that one, too. They lost just 14-6, and if UNM had found a way to score just one more touchdown maybe it would be No. 1 on this list.
The case against: New Mexico’s offense hasn’t been awful. The Lobos lead the Mountain West with 37 points per game and are fourth with 363.9 yards per game.
But they haven’t been overwhelmingly consistent on that side of the ball, either. They scored just 14 points against NDSU at home and were scoreless in the first half the previous week against Hawaii before finding the end zone three times after intermission to secure the win. If this keeps up, maybe UNM’s defense won’t be enough to stay unscathed in Mountain West play.
And that’s the other thing to consider. New Mexico likely can’t lose another game if it is going to remain in CFP contention. And that may not even be enough. The Lobos are 34th in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which trails two other teams on this list, including Boise State.
If Boise State wins out, or even if the next team on this list beats the Broncos, New Mexico may be on the outside looking in because the Mountain West won’t be viewed as strong of a league compared to the Pac-12 or American.
3. Oregon State
The case for: Oregon State’s offense has been electric in 2026.
OSU wide receiver Jesse Legree should be viewed as a Heisman Trophy frontrunner. He leads the country with 1,040 yards and 14 touchdowns receiving through just seven games. OSU quarterback Braden Atkinson is also first in the FBS with 2,604 passing yards and 24 passing touchdowns with just two interceptions. The Beavers are top five in the country with 42.7 points and 384.9 yards per contest.
They’re also extremely underrated on defense. They’re second in the Pac-12 with 345.3 yards per game allowed and give up just 23.1 points per outing. JaMarcus Shephard has completely turned things around in his first season as OSU’s head coach.
The case against: I don’t care who you played. Making the CFP with two losses could be a tough sell.
The Beavers started the year 0-2 with losses at Houston and against Texas Tech at home. Now, that’s two programs ranked in the Associated Press Top 25, and OSU kept both of those games to within two possessions. And I think the fact that those games were competitive matters a great deal here.
Oregon State also has no room for error. If the Beavers lose to Boise State, the Broncos are likely in the CFP. And even if the Beavers win out from here, I wonder if Oregon State’s resume won’t be viewed as highly as one-loss teams like New Mexico or the next program on this list.
4. UTSA
The case for: Remember how Boise State’s strength of record is second among teams in the G6? That one ahead of the Broncos is none other than UTSA.
I am exceptionally high on the Roadrunners and have been since the preseason when they were my pick to win the American. And so far they’re proving me right as they are 7-1 overall and are one of two teams to be undefeated in league play.
This is a veteran team that just keeps finding ways to win. One week, they put up nearly 60 points in a 59-45 victory over Colorado State. The next week, they fought in a low-scoring battle and defeated Rice 16-14. And the following two weeks, they beat South Florida and Navy by a single possession.
In some ways, this UTSA team reminds me of last year’s Tulane team which won the American and made it to the CFP. The Roadrunners aren’t spectacular in any one area, but they’ve got a quarterback in Owen McCown who’s seasoned and can flat-out get the job done. The Roadrunners also have a solid ground game and a defense that can make plays when it needs to.
The case against: Winning close games over and over is commendable. Four of the Roadrunners’ seven wins thus far have been decided by a single possession.
But that also may not be sustainable. After their bye, they play at FAU and at home against North Texas, both of which are 5-2 with high-flying offenses. They’ve also got to take on UAB and Tulsa, which both have four wins and should be taken seriously.
Plus, UTSA’s strength of schedule right now is 82nd in the country. Winning the American with one loss during the regular season, which was against Texas, would absolutely be enough to be considered for the CFP. But if the Roadrunners do have a letdown game, their resume otherwise
5. James Madison
The case for: To me, James Madison is the most well-balanced team in the G6.
The Dukes have averaged 41.4 points per game on offense and allow 18.3 points per game on defense.
Even when the Dukes were dealing with an injury at quarterback, they kept rolling. They won their first seven games of the season, and five of them were by double digits. And with Troy, Southern Miss, UConn and Coastal Carolina left on their regular season schedule, I think JMU could very well win the Sun Belt with just one loss on its resume.
The case against: JMU would’ve been second or third on this list if not for its 34-31 overtime loss at App State this past week. But that game happened, and now it’s going to be much tougher to make the argument for the Dukes.
Being in the Sun Belt, their strength of schedule is 129th in the FBS out of 138 teams. Now, their strength of record is 39th, which isn’t bad. And that leaves the door open for JMU if all of the four teams higher on this list lose.
But the Dukes can’t lose again, and they’ll need help, if they’re going to return to the CFP. They might not even make the Sun Belt Championship if App State wins out.
With top contenders falling and no undefeated teams remaining, the Group of Six College Football Playoff race is wide open. From Boise State to New Mexico, here are the top 5 G6 teams positioned to secure a spot in the CFP.