Staff Predictions for UTEP vs. New Mexico Lobos

UTEP's 1-3 record is misleading, having played Oklahoma, Michigan and Oregon State as part of its non-conference schedule. Quarterbacks E.J. Colson and Raymond Moore III can make plays with their legs. Colson hasn't thrown for a lot of yards, but he's completed 66.2% of his passes and has a 7-2 touchdown-interception ratio.

All that said, New Mexico (3-1)  enters Mountain West play as a 22.5-point favorite, which shows that the oddsmakers are beginning to recognize how good the Lobos are. The two questions going into the game are: How much can the offense and QB Toa Fa'avae improve during his second game as the primary signal caller and can UNM continue its unheard of trend of plus-14 in turnover margin? At some point this season, the Lobos are going to cough up the football. How they handle that adversity will be an indication of their toughness during adversity. 

NMSU did expose some holes last week in the pass defense that needs to be shored up. This is a game that can help UNM get back on track.

UNM 38, UTEP 15

Greg Archuleta, Contributor

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At the MWC Football Media Days in Las Vegas this summer, Erik Moulton and I had the pleasure of interviewing UTEP head football coach Scotty Walden. Walden has tremendous charisma, and that immediately stood out.

However, the Miners have struggled under Walden so far, posting just a 2-10 record during his tenure. UTEP has started this season 1-3, with all three losses coming against Power 4 teams, sandwiched around a 51-10 win over Texas Southern.

Miners QB EJ Colson, a good dual-threat quarterback, has passed for 496 yards, while X-back Kam Thomas, who lines up all over the field, must be accounted for. On defense, safety Xavier Smith leads UTEP with 27 tackles, and former UNM player Jayden Wilson is one of the Miners’ top linebackers.

On the Lobo side of the ball, the team did receive some bad news when it learned that WR Troy Omeire will miss the rest of the season with an achilles injury. However, UNM has plenty of depth in the receiver room.

UNM’s turnover margin of plus-14 for the season, leads the nation. The Lobos have committed zero turnovers on offense.

Most football games are won in the trenches, and the UNM offensive line, which blocked well last week against NMSU, should be able to spring Scottree Humphrey and others for a big day on the ground. QB Toa Fa’avae should be given some short fields to work with as UNM’s forces two or more turnovers.

UNM 42, UTEP 14 

Ed Nunez, Contributor

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It’s a new era for Scotty Walden and the UTEP Miners (1-3) as they play their first-ever conference game in the reshaped Mountain West. Although on-field success hasn’t materialized as fast as the University of Texas at El Paso had hoped, momentum and optimism still surround the athletic program.

UTEP recently announced a $29.1 million donation commitment from GECU to support the transformation of UTEP Athletics and Don Haskins Arena. That isn't the only financial boost arriving for the Miners' transition to the MW either, the athletic department also posted a second consecutive record fundraising year in 2026.

Still, institutional investment doesn’t translate to wins on the field overnight.

UTEP’s transition into the Mountain West naturally comes with growing pains, particularly after facing - and falling to - Power 4 programs like Oklahoma and Michigan. Surprisingly, UTEP held a 14-7 second-quarter lead in Ann Arbor before Michigan dominated the rest of the way in a 52-17 blowout.

On paper, the skill talent is evident. Quarterback EJ Colson has thrown for 496 yards (ranking eighth in the MW), while his 66.2% completion rate ranks third. His primary target, Carver Cheeks, has caught a touchdown in three consecutive games and leads the Miners with 10 receptions for 143 yards. UTEP is most dangerous in space: the offense is the only unit in the Mountain West with an 80-plus yard play from scrimmage and is tied for first with three plays of 60-plus yards.

However, the Lobos hold a distinct advantage where it matters most: controlling the trenches and neutralizing those big-play opportunities. Football games are won or lost at the line of scrimmage, and UNM has the front-seven personnel to dictate the terms of this matchup.

Throughout their three losses, the Miners have been beaten badly at the point of attack. UTEP’s pass protection has offered little relief, routinely leaving the backfield vulnerable to heavy pressure.

• Oklahoma - 22 pressures allowed

• Michigan - 16 pressures allowed

• Oregon State - 11 pressures allowed

This is where UNM will look to attack and has proved they have been effective all season so far.

• Central Michigan 14 pressures

• Oklahoma - 14 pressures

• NMSU - 16 pressures

UNM 40, UTEP 13

Erik Moulton, Contributor

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UTEP has played a good schedule with bad results. The Miners might be a bit better than their 1-3 record, but the Oklahoma game says a lot (51-0 loss).

Granted, that was a Sooner squad with playoff hopes at that time.

But still, UNM exposed a lot of OU issues.

UNM 33, UTEP 13

Mark Smith, Contributor

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