Staff Predictions for New Mexico Lobos vs. Oklahoma Sooners

The last time Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer faced a New Mexico defense, he accounted for 375 passing yards, 65 rushing yards and accounted for all five Washington State scores in the 2024 UNM home finale. The Lobos overcame his heroics and pulled off a 38-35 upset of the nationally ranked Cougars. Mateer, however, looked mortal in OU’s 17-10 loss last week at Michigan. And that 2024 UNM defense gave up 38 points and 492.1 yards per game. The current Lobo defense is a far more ferocious animal. That alone will keep New Mexico’s upset hopes alive. UNM coach Jason Eck also has a pretty good success rate on trick plays and aggressive play calling. On paper, the Lobo offense looks terrific, averaging 54 points per game. But the quarterback play has been inconsistent early in games, and the OU defense line, led by end Taylor Wein, will pose a stiff test for the UNM running game. The Lobos have to create some takeaways and need to flip field position with punt returner Marcus Beltran Jr. This game has the feel of a low-scoring affair like the Rate Bowl last season. but UNM’s QB play doesn’t appear quite ready yet for prime time.

Oklahoma 23, New Mexico 14

Greg Archuleta, Contributor

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Paying the Bill - Jason Eck has spent the first two weeks of the season taking his Lobos through the fast-food drive-thru. Central Michigan. Mercyhurst. Eight turnovers forced, 17 tackles for loss, 13 quarterback hurries and eight sacks.

Now comes the fancy dinner.

The Lobos can’t just show up hungry — they have to be able to pay the bill.

That means creating the same kind of defensive chaos against a much bigger opponent. Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer struggled in his last outing, completing 17 of 33 passes for 189 yards and throwing a costly fourth-quarter interception that set up the winning touchdown. If New Mexico can pressure Mateer early, force a couple turnovers and turn some of those takeaways into points, the Lobos can hang around for a while.

Oklahoma 27, New Mexico 13

Nick Nunez, Contributor

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There’s a different level of urgency for Oklahoma after coming off a 17-10 defeat at the hands of Michigan - especially when you gander at their next two opponents following New Mexico. I believe OU will get back to the basics by controlling the line of scrimmage and chewing up the clock by running the ball. I expect more 12-personnel sets and heavy involvement from their tight ends in the passing game. I like UNM’s defense to keep them in this game, but I’m not sure the offesne has enough down-to-down consistency to keep pace with the Sooners. UNM quarterbacks Luke Moga and Toa Fa’avae’s legs will be paramount and they must find ways to get Cade Keith and Troy Omeire the ball.

Oklahoma 31, New Mexico 16

Edge Garcia, Contributor

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The UNM football team has won its first two games by a combined score of 108-14, with the defense setting the tone. Las week, the Lobos forced seven turnovers, while running back Scottre Humphrey ran the ball effectively in a 70-7 rout of Mercyhurst.

But as head coach Jason Eck noted during Monday’s press conference, this week presents a completely different challenge for the Lobos.

Oklahoma is coming off a 17-10 loss to Michigan, and there is little doubt that UNM’s passing game will be tested. Both Toa Fa’avae and Luke Moga had some inconsistent moments against Mercyhurst las Saturday, and they will need to make plays through the air to prevent the Sooners from stacking the box against the run.

Eck’s Lobos opened last season on the road at Michigan and proved themselves will despite the loss. A few weeks later, they went on the road and defeated UCLA at The Rose Bowl, so preparing for a big-time road environment should not be as big of an issue for this team. The Lobos also have some familiarity with this team and quarterback John Mateer. UNM defeated Mateer and Washington State in 2024.

Oklahoma presents a significantly tougher test, but I expect the Lobos to compete throughout and cover the 22-point spread.

Oklahoma 35, New Mexico 17

Ed Nunez, Contributor

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Two seasons ago, New Mexico stunned No. 19 Washington State 38-35 in Albuquerque. The quarterback and offensive coordinator for the Cougars were John Mateer and Ben Arbuckle (now both with Oklahoma) and you don’t forget about bitter losses.

Coming into this year, Mateer was in the early conversation for Heisman but that has not been the reality. Mateer is ranked 4th-to-last in quarterback grading in the SEC and 184th nationally (PFF). He’s also been receiving backlash for his performance and last-minute interception that sealed the deal for the Michigan win last week.

But that doesn’t change the fact that Mateer could still be considered an elite quarterback - with a combination of his arm strength and athleticism make it challenging for defenses to game plan for him week to week. In Week 1 (UTEP), Oklahoma threw the ball just 19 times compared to 23 rushes. In Week 2 against Michigan, OU chose to throw 43 times vs. 22 rushes - a much different approach that had completely different results from an offensive grading standpoint (81.9 vs. UTEP and 49.4 vs. Michigan).

I’d expect OU and Arbuckle to adjust the scheme and get back to establishing the run game in this one.

Since 2000, the Sooners are 41-5 in regular season games following a loss in the same year. Although UNM’s team strength is the defense, OU may have too much fire power on the offensive line and in the backfield with Mateer and running backs Lloyd Avant and Jonathon Hatton.

The bigger question for me is how UNM’s offense will come out and execute on early downs to stay on the field.

Oklahoma 27, New Mexico 10

Erik Moulton, Contributor

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