Staff Predictions for the Rio Grande Rivalry: New Mexico Lobos vs. New Mexico State Aggies
As frustrating as the loss to Oklahoma was, the Lobos have to feel good knowing they will not face a team with as much talent as the Sooners the rest of the year, and UNM should have won that game. But the adage for rivalry games is "Throw out the records." The Aggies are coming off a bye week, are at home and are looking to avenge last season's 38-20 loss in Albuquerque after leading 17-7 in the first half.
Plus, any in-state recruits both schools are recruiting can only be on the Aggie sidelines, and UNM coach Jason Eck said NMSU definitely played better in last year's rivalry game than it did in the games leading up to that game. It's a big game for both from a recruiting standpoint. The Aggies had their own Group of Four experience, playing Florida State tough on its field, so they won't be intimidated by little 'ol UNM.
State can move the ball through the air with QB Trey Redden and his 260.3-yard average in passing yards. But the Lobo defense will rival that of Florida State and any other school NMSU faces this season. UNM is an astounding plus-11 in turnover margin through three games and will put pressure on the Aggies to take care of the ball.
Conversely, the Lobo QBs have to show improvement with Mountain West play starting next week and can't always rely on the defense and special teams to give them short fields. If WR Troy Omeire can have a bounce-back game, TE Cade Keith keeps rolling and the running game gets going, UNM should overcome the Aggies' home-field advantage.
UNM 30, NMSU 13
Greg Archuleta, Contributor
Is This Even a Rivalry? - The Lobos have dominated this series, holding a 75-35-5 advantage over New Mexico State. The Lobos are deserving 11.5 favorites and on paper, and are the better team.
UNM needs to get its offense rolling against an Aggie defense that does have the same size up front as Oklahoma. Toa Fa'avae's ability to run adds another element that UNM needs to incorporate more into the playbook. The Lobos need more balanced production from their wide recivers, and Troy Omeire could be in line for a bounce-back game after a couple key-drops last week.
After a strong defensive showing against an SEC opponent, expect the Lobo defense to slow down the Aggies. If UNM runs the ball well and hits some explosive plays, I expect the Lobos to cover the spread.
UNM 38, NMSU 13
Nick Nunez, Contributor
On Monday following the press conference, Erik Moulton and I were joined upstairs for lunch by none other than UNM head coach Jason Eck. When asked if he had ginned up the requisite animosity for a heated rival like New Mexico State, Eck offered a firm yes. He remains unhappy with comments made by NMSU head coach Tony Sanchez following UNM's 38-20 victory at University Stadium last year. That’s welcome news for Lobo fans, every coach in program history has approached this game with healthy disdain for the Aggies, and as affable as Eck can be, UNM desperately wants to win this game.
NMSU comes off a bye week following a 29-19 turnover-plagued loss to Hawaii. Furman transfer quarterback Trey Hedden has performed well under center for the Aggies, completing 56 of 97 passes for 781 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions. Meanwhile, Delaware State transfer running back James Jones leads Conference USA with 81 rushing yards per game, complementing NMSU's effective air attack.
However, UNM defensive coordinator Spence Nowinsky’s unit is special. Last week against Oklahoma, the Lobos forced two turnovers and held the Sooners to just 61 rushing yards. Linebacker Jaxston Eck leads a high-flying defense that relentlessly swarms the ball and generates heavy pressure on the quarterback.
Offensively, the Lobos must establish a presence through the air. Quarterbacks Toa Fa’avae and Luke Moga need to capitalize on passing opportunities, avoid drive-killing sacks, and protect the football. Expect wide receiver Troy Omeire to have a bounce-back performance as the Lobos stretch the field deep.
Expect a tight contest through two and a half quarters before UNM pulls away late
UNM 35, NMSU 21
Ed Nunez, Contributor
New Mexico must establish a run game. Period.
In last years matchup with the Aggies, New Mexico cruised to a 38-20 win in Albuquerque that included at 24-3 outburst in the second half. UNM quarterback Jack Layne threw for 303 yards and 4 touchdowns while the Lobo run game rushed for 132 yards split between Scottre Humphrey, Damon Bankston, and DJ McKinney (0 rushing touchdowns).
New Mexico States defensive scheme tried to limit the rushing attack which worked fairly well in the first half - NMSU jumped out to a 17-7 lead in the second quarter.
But Layne and the offense took advantage of a loaded box and connected on five total touchdown passes (Tight end Michael Buckley threw a 41-yard touchdown pass to Keagan Johnson in the 4th quarter).
But this season’s Lobo offense still has plenty of questions surrounding their quarterback play. Neither Toa Fa’avae or Luke Moga have produced enough results to give Jason Eck the confidence as the full time starter.
Given that UNM’s quarterbacks have shown the ability to mobilize outside of the pocket, I’d anticipate the NMSU defense will try to load the box again and key on keeping the UNM quarterbacks in the pocket.
If UNM can find some rushing success on early downs, that will open the playbook and allow the quarterbacks to find some easier throws near the line of scrimmage and open the opportunity to catch the secondary creeping in for leaky pass over the top.
UNM’s defense will be ready to go. I just wonder if the offense can finally escape from being too one-dimensional.
UNM 28, NMSU 14
Erik Moulton, Contributor
The Pit Press staff predictions ahead of the New Mexico and New Mexico State on Saturday 9/26 in Las Cruces, NM.